AP Photo/Eric Gay
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a town hall meeting, Saturday, Dec. 31, 2011, in Sioux City, Iowa.
Most of the last-minute polling shows Mitt Romney holding a narrow lead among Republicans in Iowa. Indeed, if you average the last six polls, Romney is 1.3% ahead of Ron Paul, according to Real Clear Politics.
OK, let's assume Romney pulls out a narrow lead and wins Tuesday's caucuses. That'd be a big improvement over his second-place finish behind Mike Huckabee in 2008, right?
Well, maybe.
Last time around, Romney finished with 25.19% of the vote. The RCP average of the last six polls shows Romney with only 22.8% this time around. True, the actual '12 results may boost him up a bit from that, but basically there's no indication that Romney will show improvement in four years.
Does that show strength or weakness for Romney?
The strength argument goes something like this: in 2008, Huckabee was the only evangelical in the race. This time around the social conservative vote (which makes up about 60% of Republican caucusgoers) has many more choices, including with Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.
And because many of those evangelicals are skeptical of Romney's Mormonism, its amazing Romney is holding steady from 2008.
The weakness argument counters that Romney's been actively running for president for five years now. And critics, like the National Review's Jim Geraghty, argue the 2008 GOP field was stronger than the 2012 candidates.
Remember the big names of '08? Besides Huckabee, there was McCain, Guliani, Thompson and not to mention Ron Paul. The fact that Romney is doing about the same in '12 shows weakness.
And here's one more item to chew on. The all-time weakest showing (by showing, we mean percentage) for a winner in the GOP Iowa caucuses was Bob Dole back in 1996, when he won with just 26% (and he was from nearby Kansas!). According to the polls, Romney could beat Dole's low mark tomorrow.
So if Romney wins the Iowa caucuses tomorrow, but his percentage is lower than his 2008 finish and/or lower than Bob Dole's in 1996, what kind of victory would that be?
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Oh no, not again.........What a phony baloney is Romney....much like his twin brother from another mother, Reagan.
Here's an image that might overwhelm -
Our nation with Mitt Romney at the helm.
A picture even stranger,
And there'd be lesser danger,
With Fred Krueger from a street known as Elm.
What kind of a victory would it be if Romney wins? That's easy: a victory for Wall Street, a loss for the rest of us. Unless he loses in November 2012; then it'll be a victory for Obama and the rest of us.
I am going to get these decorations packed up by eight o' clock so I can watch the Ed show. Catch you later. Work, work, work, work....
Romney has baggage just like Newt. His tax issue is big, we need full disclosure. His Mormonism is an issue, can there be separation of church and state with him? I do not think so!
Just like all the rest of the GOP he would pay the debt by passing the collection plate to the middle and lower class taxpayer..
There is a man named Mitt.
He flip flops with lines of wit.
Though all of the races in so many places.
The president he'll never fit!
I hope no american loose sight of what is really going on. If (but they will not) the republicans get in the white house they will take this country 100 years back. Not only do they hate (because he is black and a democrat)Barack Obama but they don't like the poor or less advantaged. let's show them again the power of the people reins over everything. Women they don't like you either. (especially Mitt Romney.
Don't forget gays, muslims, moderates, "intellectuals", compromise, teachers, social security, medicare, medicaid-hatred of all those things is also very important to them
I am a Canadian who is glued to MSNBC all day. I became a fan of Obama in the last election and I CAN NOT imagine anyone after watching Republicans debaucle voting for anyone but OBAMA.
Go Obama
I am a Canadian who has been a fan of Obama's since last election. I don"t know how anyone can vote Republican after watching the debaucle we've seen. I am constantly glued to my T.V. Love MSNBC
bev43: That was worth saying twice. MSNBC rules.
bev43, I don't know how anyone can vote Republican either. Obama did really well considering the terrible hand he was dealt, and if that wasn't bad enough, we had the European problem, Japan's disaster, Irene, and twenty other things which hurt the economy. Still we keep slogging along, slowly but surely. As they say, "The mills of the gods grind slowly, but they grind exceedingly fine."
Not to mention the House Republicans blocking him at every turn. Stupid TeaPartiers! No wonder he couldn't get anything done. I'm amazed he was able to do as much as he did!
Mitch McConnell and the Republicans number one goal was to make President Obama a one term President. They didn't care if that meant the middle class or poor suffer or the economy got worse. The Republicans number one goal was to do nothing which might create jobs, like pass the American Jobs Act. They didn't give a dam about hiring teachers, fire fighters, policemen. They didn't give a dam about repairing our roads and bridges, which could have put construction workers back to work. Their is a bridge in McConnell home state which was closed down because it need repair. And it could have been paid for by asking folks like Mitt Romney to pay just alittle bit more in taxes. A guy who is worth 250 million dollars. Just think back how they "REFUSE" to do that. Then think back how they were all set to let taxes go up on the middle class. So that told me that the only one taxes they are against being raised are the rich. Unemployment benefits, they are against that. And the nerve of the Republicans wanting anyone who received unemployment benefits to have a drug test. Where were the call for the folks on Wall St. or the big bankers to be drug tested when they got our bailout money? After all it wasn't the people who received unemployment benefits who cause this financial crisis.
You just have to understand the true mindset of republican politicians: me, myself, and I everyone else can go screw themselves. Many them have a me, me, me, pity me because I'm rich and democrats keep picking on me(sad face) mindset. It's all about their money, their religion, their philosphy, their saticfaction....now ordinary and by themselves these ideas are not bad, they are not innately a problem. What is the problem is their belief that government "handouts" should never be available after the GOP has got in line and taken the very same handouts they condemn. They don't care whether the government money comes from until it starts being about everyone.
Say you have two houses right next to each other with different families(social classes)
now say that one of those houses(the greedy corporate types) catches fire so they call the fire department and their neighbors all go out and help fight the blaze without being asked or expecting reward. The fire goes out after the neighbors all got together to fight the blaze.
Now say the house next to the burnt house catches fire but unlike the previous fire the neighbors(the one's who just got helped) don't come to the rescue. Hell they even try closing the water piping system for the street just because it "annoys" them.
the people in house1 choose not to help the people in house2 who just help save the physical structure from fire for free. But now that house2 is in need house1 doesn't give a damn or they to paid to do and if not they'll let it burn and do nothing
India Lecarre sorry about having it come through twice. didn't know how to correct it. Hope Romney comes in last in Iowa. I just don't like him or trust him
If a foreign nation had launched an attack on America to destroy its coal-fired plants, to shut down its coal mines, and to thwart its ability to drill for oil and natural gas, we would be at war with it.
Obama is at war with America.
Between the waste of billions squandered on “Green” energy and the attacks on all aspects of the energy industries in America, the one reason to defeat Obama is your ability to turn on the lights, turn on your computer, and ensure that American business and industry has the energy necessary to exist and compete.
Oil companies are doing just fine, they continue to profit so pity is wasted on them. Fact is these companies(mostly oil) break laws and regulations on safety because that's what happened with BP, Exxon, all the other ones....when the accident happens we always end up learning they cut corners and no one who was supposed to be regulating them did anything about it.
They don't have it rough, they need to play by rules and many of them don't.